Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Today we’ll learn how Britain’s economy fared at the height of the summer, when the first estimate of UK GDP in July is released in around 30 minutes, at 7am.
Economists predict that growth slowed, or worse, during July. The consensus forecast is that GDP was unchanged during in the month, a slowdown compared to June when the economy expanded by 0.4%.
City forecasts range from growth of 0.2% to a 0.2% fall in GDP during the month.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK is in the growth camp, explaining:
Overall, the domestic economy is in better shape than it perhaps feels to businesses and consumers but this discrepancy in perception vs reality, or ‘vibecession’, is slowing growth; and we expect Friday’s GDP to show that the economy grew by 0.1% m/m in July despite some headwinds from NHS strikes and a weak construction sector.
The upshot is that behind the headlines, July’s GDP data is likely to show that the economy continued to recover over the summer after April’s barrage of taxes and tariffs.
But…. Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, Sanjay Raja, expects a small reversal in GDP in July:
After a surprisingly stronger Q2-25, where the UK claimed the fastest growth rate among G7 economies, all signs point to a slowdown in economic activity in the second half of the year. A course correction in trade-fronting, stockpiling, net acquisitions of precious metals, and public sector spending, we think, will see UK GDP growth slow into H2-25.
What do we expect in July? Our nowcast models point to a 0.1% m-o-m contraction to start the summer – though we see some upside risks given the timing of the Euro finals. Overall, however, we see all three key sectors in the UK declining.
7am BST: UK GDP report for July
7am BST: UK trade report for July
11.30am BST: Russia interest rate decision
3pm: US consumer confidence survey from the University of Michigan
UK GDP report expected to show economy slowed in July – business live – The Guardian
