An Innovation Advice Column for Business Leaders
Dear Idea Guy,
Every December, we’re flooded with predictions about next year’s trends — AI, automation, culture shifts, new customer expectations. Some feel insightful. Others feel like noise.
How much weight should we actually give these forecasts? And how should they impact what we do as a company without sending us chasing the wrong things?
— Planning in Poway
You’re asking the right question at the right time. Every December, leaders are flooded with predictions about next year’s trends — AI, automation, culture shifts, changing customer expectations. Some feel insightful. Others feel like noise.
Here’s the truth: trend forecasts aren’t useless — but they’re not strategy. They’re context.
Think of trends like a weather report. They tell you what conditions may be coming, not where you should go or how to get there. Used well, they help you prepare. Used poorly, they send you chasing movement instead of making progress.
The biggest mistake companies make is treating trends like a to-do list. AI is hot, so we need AI. Culture is shifting, so we need a culture initiative. Customer expectations are changing, so let’s redesign everything. The result is strategic whiplash — new tools, new priorities, new projects, and the same unresolved problems.
Instead of asking, “Should we act on this trend?” ask better questions:
What problem does this trend make more urgent for us?
If it doesn’t intensify a real, existing challenge, it’s probably not your move yet.
Where does this trend increase friction for our customers or our team?
That friction — not the trend itself — is where opportunity lives.
What assumption of ours might this trend invalidate?
This is where forecasts add real value: they pressure-test how you’re thinking today.
What happens if we ignore this for 12 months?
If the honest answer is “not much,” you’ve gained clarity and focus.
Here’s what most soothsayers won’t tell you: by the time a trend shows up in a glossy year-end report, early adopters have already moved — and late adopters are already reacting. Chasing trends rarely creates advantage. Understanding how they intersect with your specific problems does.
The goal isn’t to predict the future. It’s to build an organization that can respond intelligently when the future arrives.
— Kevin Popovic, The Idea Guy®
WHAT’S YOUR PROBLEM? is a weekly column by Kevin Popovic, The Idea Guy®—a trusted advisor to CEOs and leaders across industries. Each edition answers real-world business challenges with clear, creative insights you can use to think differently and lead confidently.
Got a problem worth solving? Send your question to [email protected] – it could be featured in an upcoming column.
Kevin Popović is the trusted advisor behind What’s Your Problem?, the San Diego Business Journal’s weekly innovation advice column for business leaders. Known as The Idea Guy®, Popović helps CEOs and leadership teams solve complex challenges with clarity, creativity, and confidence.
A former Zahn Chair of Creativity & Innovation at San Diego State University and a TEDx speaker, Kevin has led award-winning agencies, launched innovation labs, and guided Fortune 500 companies, startups, and public institutions through high-impact change. As the founder of The Idea Guy®, he brings over 25 years of experience helping executives build cultures of innovation, improve strategic thinking, and generate results.
His work spans design thinking, creative strategy, and generative AI—equipping leaders to reframe problems and lead what’s next.
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What’s Your Problem? #30 – San Diego Business Journal
